NFL Betting
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1) at Denver Broncos (2-3)
Sunday, 8:15 pm Eastern – NBC

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5 , Total 39

 

The Denver Broncos will try and keep their season from coming apart as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NBC Sunday night game. The Broncos are 2-3 and a loss would send them to 2-4 and put them in serious trouble.  The Broncos had a bye last week and it may have been a good thing as they were coming off their worst home loss in 40 years as San Diego crushed them 41-3.

 

"One thing you can't do is dwell on it," Denver cornerback Champ Bailey said. "You learn from it and you keep moving on. You worry about that loss and the next team will get you."  Denver has the worst rushing defense in the league, although they have the best defense against the pass but that number is skewed since teams are running at will. "I know to people it looks like, 'Oh, this team is awful,'" safety John Lynch said. "But that's not the case. We've got to show it."  It is not a good matchup for the Broncos as the Steelers have the second-ranked rushing offense in the league, averaging 167 yards per game.  Playing defense and running the ball usually results in winning games and that is exactly what Pittsburgh is doing.  "They're pretty good," Denver coach Mike Shanahan said. "Any time you give up 9.4 points per game and 235 yards and have a point differential (that) is tied with New England, you’re pretty good, so I think they’re playing extremely well."

Pittsburgh is 5-1 but has not gotten much attention since New England and Indianapolis are still unbeaten.  Pittsburgh expects to get injured players Hines Ward, Troy Polamalu and Santonio Holmes back this week from injuries.

 

Current Line: Steelers -3.5 , Total 39

 

Denver is 15-10 all-time against Pittsburgh and has won three straight at home versus the Steelers.

 

Here are the betting stats for Sunday’s game.  The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. The Steelers are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games in October. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between the two teams.

 

The Broncos are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Broncos are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

 

The Over is 8-0 in the Broncos last 8 home games. The Over is 4-1 in the Broncos last 5 games as an underdog. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams.

 

NFL Betting Preview
Dallas Cowboys (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1)
Sunday, 8:15 pm Eastern – NBC

Opening Line: Bears -3 , Total 43

 

Two of the best teams in the NFC meet on Sunday night as the Chicago Bears host the Dallas Cowboys.  It will be a matchup of great offense versus great defense.  Tony Romo is leading a powerful Dallas offense while Brian Urlacher leads a great Bears defense. 
 

The Cowboys lead the league with 82 points, their highest total after two games since 1971. "You can't crown us champions right now," safety Ken Hamlin said. "It's only the second week of the season." Quarterback Tony Romo leads the NFC with a 119.3 quarterback rating, throwing for 531 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. Terrell Owens has eight catches for 184 yards and three scores this season. Marion Barber has 154 yards and three TDs on 25 carries.

 

The Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league and the fifth-fewest yards.  They defeated Kansas City 20-10 last week.  They have held 12 of their last 15 opponents at home to 10 points or less. The Bears held the Chiefs' Larry Johnson to 55 yards on 16 attempts.  The problem for Chicago is the offense which has the third-fewest yards in the league and has scored the fourth-fewest points.  Embattled quarterback Rex Grossman was 20-of-34 for 160 yards and a touchdown but was intercepted twice.  The Bears have turned the ball over 7 times this season, tied with Detroit for most in the league.  Chicago does have Devin Hester though and he had a 73-yard punt return for a touchdown last week although Dallas has said they will not kick to him on Sunday night.

Current Line: Bears -3 (-115) , Total 41

 

Chicago has won the last three matchups at Soldier Field between the two teams. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Cowboys are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

 

The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The

Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between the two teams.

 

The Over is 8-2-2 in the Cowboys last 12 road games. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Cowboys last 9 games overall. The Over is 8-3-2 in the Cowboys last 13 vs. the NFC. The Over is 11-5-1 in the Cowboys last 17 games as a road underdog.

 

The Over is 14-2-1 in the Bears last 17 vs. the NFC. The Over is 10-2 in the Bears last 12 games as a home favorite. The Over is 12-3-1 in the Bears last 16 games as a favorite. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the two teams.

NFL Betting Preview
San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-0)
Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern – CBS

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5 , Total 43

 

Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers are 2-0 on the season while NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson and the San Diego Chargers are 1-1.  The Packers are coming off their highest-scoring game in nearly two years, a 35-13 rout of the New York Giants.  The Chargers are coming off a bad loss at New England where they were blown out 38-14. San Diego was the NFL's highest-scoring team last season, averaging 30.8 points per game but has done little with new head coach Norv Turner.

San Diego is 24th in the league with just 28 points. "I'm concerned because there is a standard here and we expect to be more productive and we expect to move the ball,” Turner said, "We need to be more productive and we're not going to be more productive if we turn the football over.” Philip Rivers had two interceptions and lost a fumble Sunday.  Tomlinson has averaged 1.9 yards per carry with only 68 yards on 35 carries. "I don't know that anything that you say is going to reassure anybody,” Turner said, "What we have to do is go perform. We have to go play the way we're capable of playing.”

Current Line: Chargers -5.5 , Total 43

 

The Packers are off to their best start since opening 3-0 in 2001. "The offseason program, through training camp, and really now with the two wins, I just see the confidence building,” coach Mike McCarthy said, "I think it's real confidence. It's not manufactured, and I think that's important. Our guys believe. They know they can improve. They believe in the work week and what it takes to get ready for a football game. It's growing, a lot of energy in the building.”

 

Favre is a perfect 4-0 against San Diego in his career.  He has thrown for 828 yards, 10 TDs and four interceptions in those games.  The last time the teams played was in 2003 as Favre threw for 278 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Green Bay has won seven of eight all-time meetings against San Diego.

 

The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

 

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Packers are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. The Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

 

The Over is 6-1 in the Chargers last 7 road games. The Under is 4-1 in the Chargers last 5 games as a favorite. The Under is 4-1 in the Packers last 5 home games. The Under is 4-1 in the Packers last 5 games as a home underdog. The Under is 4-1 in the Packers last 5 games overall.

NFL Preseason Betting Preview

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Monday, 8:00 pm Eastern – ESPN

 

Current Line: Bears -2.5, Total 35.5

 

The Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears meet in a rematch of Super Bowl XLI tonight in preseason action.  The game won’t mean anything but it still might provide some form of revenge if the Bears can get the win. 
 

The Colts have lost quite a few players from their Super Bowl team.  They are missing running back Dominic Rhodes who is now in Oakland, left tackle Tarik Glenn who retired, defensive tackle Anthony McFarland, out for the season with an injury, linebacker Cato June, now in Tampa Bay, and cornerbacks Nick Harper, now in Tennessee and Jason David, now in New Orleans.

 

The Colts lost their preseason opener to the Cowboys 23-10 while the Bears started with a 20-19 win over Houston. The Bears no longer have Thomas Jones who is now with the Jets or defensive tackle Tank Johnson, who was released.  The game won’t be much of a rematch tonight since starters won’t play very long for either team.  The Colts are expected to play Peyton Manning and the starters about 20-25 plays which should take them into the 2nd quarter.  Jim Sorgi will follow Manning and get the bulk of the playing time and Josh Betts will finish up.

 

Current Line: Bears -2.5 (-115), Total 37

 

The Colts will be without safeties Bob Sanders (shoulder) and Brannon Condren (groin), cornerback Michael Coe (groin), offensive tackle Gabe Hall (knee), linebackers KaMichael Hall (hamstring), Victor Worsley (hamstring) and Tyjuan Hagler (knee) and defensive tackles Tom Johnson (calf) and Ramel Meekins (groin). RB Joseph Addai won't get a lot of carries. The team wants to avoid wearing down Addai so expect second-year RB DeDe Dorsey to get a lot of work tonight.

 

The Bears are expected to let their starters go into the 2nd quarter as well.  QB Rex Grossman will be followed by Brian Griese and Kyle Orton.  The Bears may not play linebacker Brian Urlacher and will want to take a look at younger players. "Whenever you get a chance to play against the world champions, it's big," head coach Lovie Smith said. "It's just another chance to see exactly where we are with our evaluation of our football team."

 

The Bears hold a 7-5-1 advantage in the all-time preseason series with the Colts.

 

NFL Preseason Betting Preview

San Diego Chargers at St. Louis Rams
Saturday, 8:00 pm Eastern – FOX

Opening Line: Rams -1, Total 38.5

 

The St. Louis Rams host the San Diego Chargers in preseason action Friday night on FOX television.  The Rams began their preseason schedule last week getting a 13-10 victory at Minnesota. St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger completed 6-of-7 passes for 42 yards in limited action.  The Rams hope to get a look at their first round draft pick, Adam Carriker out of Nebraska on Saturday.

 

The Chargers lost their preseason opener 24-16 at home to Seattle.  The Chargers gave up 17 points in the fourth quarter to the Seahawks. Starting quarterback Philip Rivers completed 5-of-7 passes for 71 yards.  Running back LaDainian Tomlinson did not play so backup running backs Darren Sproles and Michael Turner got most of the carries.

 

The Chargers are expected to play their starters for the first half on Saturday and that includes quarterback Philip Rivers.  Billy Volek and Charlie Whitehurst will get 2^nd half action. “Hopefully we'll look a lot more in sync. We need to play with more consistency,” Chargers head coach Norv Turner said, “We're going to play a half.”

Current Line: Chargers -2.5, Total 38.5

 

Michael Turner should receive the majority of carries in the game. Darren Sproles will return kicks and punts with the top special teams units and is expected to play most of the third quarter. Norv Turner would also like to see first-year back Tyrone Gross get some work. RB LaDainian Tomlinson will not play on Saturday as he is usually held out of most preseason action. The Chargers will also be without starting WR Eric Parker who will miss the entire preseason.

 

St. Louis is expected to go with quarterback Marc Bulger followed by Gus Frerotte, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Berlin. It is not known for sure if Fitzpatrick will play as he suffered a cracked rib earlier this week.

 

The all-time series between the Chargers and Rams is tied, 17-17.  The last meeting between the two teams was last year in the regular season as the Chargers won 38-24.

NFL Preseason Betting Preview
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, 8:00 pm Eastern – ESPN

Opening Line: Chiefs -3 (-125), Total 34.5

 

The Kansas City Chiefs play host to Trent Green and the Miami Dolphins in NFL preseason action on Thursday.  Green returns to Kansas City as a member of the Miami Dolphins.  Green led the Chiefs to the playoffs, was a Pro Bowl quarterback, but last year was injured and in the off-season was traded to Miami.  How will fans in Kansas City react to Green on Thursday night? "He will get a good ovation when he comes home, and he should because he has done a lot for the city of Kansas City," Chiefs head coach Herm Edwards said. "He's been a pro, he's in the community. As a player, it will be good to see him. I haven't seen him in a while."

 

Green didn't play well last week in Saturday's 18-17 victory over Jacksonville but will start and play the first quarter.  "I'm just going to let it happen, and we'll see. I had a great six years there and enjoyed it," Green said. "My family enjoyed it. It was a great experience for us as a family, and I'm just happy to be down here. I'm here now. I'm a Dolphin." Cleo Lemon who is in the running for the starting QB job will play the second quarter. Rookie John Beck and backup Gibran Hamdan will play the second half.

 

Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard who are competing for the Chiefs’ starting quarterback job will each play a quarter with Huard getting the start this week.  The Chiefs will still be without running back Larry Johnson who is holding out in a contract dispute.  Michael Bennett and rookie Kolby Smith have been getting the bulk of the carries.  This game will be an important one for the Chiefs and for Huard and Croyle. "At the end of the day, we will make a decision, and if it's this week, it's this week. If it's not, it's not," Edwards said. "It's going to be one of those situations where whoever you decide to go with, you've giving them the opportunity to be the starter and you're giving them enough reps to prove that he can be a starter."

Current Line: Chiefs -3 (-125), Total 33.5

 

"The third game is the one when all the veteran guys are going to have to play the first half and then possibly the third quarter," he said. "I'm not going to put pressure on either one of the quarterbacks or myself - or the team - to say, 'This is the guy.' I want to make the right decision. I am very patient."

 

Four Dolphin defensive players will not play on Thursday. Defensive end Jason Taylor, linebacker Zach Thomas, tackle Keith Traylor and linebacker Joey Porter will all miss the game.

NFL Preseason Betting Preview

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans

Saturday, 8:00 pm Eastern – NFL Network

 

Opening Line: Titans -3, Total 35.5

 

2006 NFL Rookie of the year Vince Young and the Tennessee Titans play host to the Washington Redskins on Saturday night. Young had a great rookie season and nearly led the Titans to the playoffs last year.  The Titans are a much different team than last year so Saturday’s preseason opener will be the first chance to see the new players in action.

 

Starters lost for Tennessee are running back Travis Henry who went to Denver, wide receivers Drew Bennett now with the Rams and Bobby Wade now with the Vikings.  The Titans also have lost cornerback Pacman Jones who was suspended for the entire season. 

 

Washington will be looking to start off the preseason with a new attitude after going a very poor 5-11 last season. The Redskins added middle linebacker London Fletcher, safety LaRon Landry their first round pick and cornerback Fred Smoot to their defense. On offense the Redskins will look for more cohesiveness out of quarterback Jason Campbell.

 

Current Line: Titans -3, Total 35.5

 

Running back Clinton Portis (knee) is not expected to play.  The Redskins are expected to go with Jason Campbell for less than a quarter followed by Mark Brunell, Todd Collins and rookie Jordan Palmer.  It could be that Brunell plays quite a bit since he is coming off shoulder surgery and needs the work.

 

The Titans will play Vince Young sparingly and he will be followed by Kerry Collins and Tim Rattay.  The starters may actually play more than normal for the Titans in the preseason opener. "I would say this: we are going to play people a little longer than you would expect, because we need to," head coach Jeff Fisher said.

The Redskins hold a 3-2 edge in their all-time preseason series with the Titans.  The two teams met last season in regular season action as Tennessee won 25-22.

NFL Preseason Betting Preview

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints

Friday, 8:00 pm Eastern – CBS

 

Opening Line: Saints -5.5, Total 37

 

The New Orleans Saints play their second preseason game of the season when they host the Buffalo Bills on Friday night.  The Saints looked poor in the Hall of Fame Game, losing to Pittsburgh 20-7.  The Saints will again play their starters sparingly but head coach Sean Payton will want a better effort than he got the first game. LTSF reports that early betting on this NFL preseason game has the public expecting a lot of points taking the Over 36.

 

The Bills open their preseason with J.P. Losman firmly established as the starting quarterback.  Fans will want to see first round pick, running back Marshawn Lynch who was selected No. 12 overall out of California.  He is expected to take over for the departed Willis McGahee who was traded to Baltimore in the off-season. The Bills will play Losman for a series or two and then turn things over to Craig Nall and rookie Trent Edwards out of Stanford.  It is also possible Kevin Eakin may play.  It is expected that Edwards will get most of the playing time on Friday.  Most of the starters for Buffalo are not expected to play more than a series or two.

 

al Current Line: Saints -6.5, Total 36

"Our first group, both sides of the ball will probably play somewhere between 12 and 15 plays," head coach Dick Jauron said. "It just depends on how it goes. If it goes real well that may just be one drive and you'd love it to be that way. If it goes real poorly it may be three drives. You just don't know. Then we'll get everybody in that we'll can. I would say that most of the guys will play."

"We just want to go out there and be crisp," said Losman. "We know it's our first game, but we want to try to avoid any kind of complications. The plays he'll be giving us I'm sure will be pretty vanilla so we just want to be sharp on those and keep the chains moving and have a good drive of 12 or 15 plays.”

 

New Orleans is expected to play quarterback Drew Brees for about a quarter. Jamie Martin will get the 2nd quarter with Jason Fife and Tyler Palko playing the second half. Running back Deuce McAllister is expected to play after sitting out the exhibition opener.  Coach Sean Payton had the Saints practice a little harder this week after the poor performance in the opening preseason game against the Steelers. "I just think we all felt as a whole that we needed a good week of practice this week," said Payton.

The all-time preseason series between the Bills and Saints is tied at three games each.  The teams have not met in the preseason since 1990.

Regardless of what the pessimists may convey to you there is money to be made when wagering on the NFL preseason. However, my personal approach, as it applies to handicapping the preseason, is vastly different than when the games count for real.

I have had considerable success when implementing my approach and methods at this time of year. My keys to being a successful NFL preseason handicapper revolve around some personal golden rules, discipline, and even stricter money management policies than I use at any other time of year.

The first order of business that needs to be looked at is the head coaches that are involved. Some head coaches place more emphasis and significance on preseason than others. A past example of this would be when Marv Levy was the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. Levy placed very little if any importance on preseason games. He used the preseason solely to evaluate new player personnel, draft picks, and free agent rookies that were not drafted.
Buffalo had a very solid nucleus of core players during his regime so the job openings were hard to come by. His goals were to find the five to seven players he needed to complete his regular season roster and to get to the starting gate 100% healthy.

Contrarily Bill Parcells seemed to take the opposite approach with all the teams he coached. He tended to play his starters deeper into games than most coaches would choose to do so with the exception of the last preseason game on the schedule. Parcells was an advocate of making sure his starters were as sharp as can be heading into the regular season. My suggestion would be to isolate the NFL head coaches that have some seniority under their belts and track the results of each in past preseason games. I can assure you that you will find two to three that show some glaring tendencies that will be very beneficial in your handicapping these otherwise meaningless games.

The next priority in my evaluation process is getting the most pertinent information as it applies to player rotations. If there is one factor that I place more importance on than all the rest it's this. Nowadays the vast majority of people on the planet have computer access and the basic ability to surf the web. We have the most powerful informational tool right at our fingertips and that is the internet. Currently you can access to any major city newspaper online and more importantly in this instance the sports section of each. It is there you can find valuable information on how long a head coach intends on playing their starters, what particular facet of their game they are placing the most emphasis on, and what key players will be held out of the game for precautionary measures or injuries.

In correlation with this thinking evaluating the depth of each particular team is very important as well. For example if each coach's plan calls for their starters to play only the first half and one team has far superior depth than the other, then they will have a distinct advantage in the second half.

One very simple factor that always raises the red flag with me in the preseason is when a team is an underdog 6.0 or more points. I think you will find that if you track these particular situations for the last 10 years and beyond is that by playing on the underdogs in this role would have produced a very high percentage of winning results. The logic is quite simple. No team during the preseason should merit being a sizeable favorite. That is not to say that this logic is anywhere near 100% infallible. However, it is the best way to make money at this time of year without straining the brain in the process.

Money management is crucial at this time of the season. You don't want to dissipate your bankroll by any significant amount that you have stored away for the season. There is money to be made but the miscellaneous factors that can occur at this time of year make wagering large sums on any game a blatant misuse of your bankroll. My wagers at this time of year never exceed 25% of what my maximum wager would be during the regular season. If you don't adhere to anything else you have read in this article I implore you to give this particular rule no less than serious consideration.

It is imperative to me in the preseason to check on the daily line movements most notably the late line movement. Unlike the regular season you will find lines that may move anywhere from three to five points from where they opened by game time. Some of this movement of course is based on where the money is going, but most has to do with changing information that the books have to adjust to. It is very important to be able to decipher the difference between the two. Although I am not an advocate of trying to middle games, the NFL preseason will give those who are middle players plenty of opportunities to roll the dice.

Never wager on the last week of the preseason schedule! It is at this juncture that each organization is quite sure of their roster heading into the regular season and takes all due measures to make sure they sustain no injuries to key personnel. There is one head coach that comes to mind that is the exception to the rule. Jeff Fisher of the Tennessee Titans for whatever reason has always maintained the mindset that the last preseason game was the most important in terms of having his team firing on all cylinders heading into the regular season. However don't think you are going to be at any incredible advantage knowing this going in. The books as always are very sharp and on top of things and if you plan on wagering on Tennessee in this spot you better plan on laying a hefty number by preseason standards.

Good luck with all your wagers and remember this is a marathon and not a sprint. Like all NFL players you don't want to get hurt in the preseason because the regular season is when the serious money is on the line.