NFL Preseason Handicapping
http://www.letstalksportsforum.com/sports-betting-articles/articles/24/1/NFL-Preseason-Handicapping-/Page1.html
Big Playa
They call me the Big Playa.... You ask why? Because I bring in the BIG Money! By Big Playa
Published on 07/30/2007
Regardless of what the pessimists may convey to you there is money to be made when wagering on the NFL preseason. However, my personal approach, as it applies to handicapping the preseason, is vastly different than when the games count for real.
I have had considerable success when implementing my approach and methods at this time of year. My keys to being a successful NFL preseason handicapper revolve around some personal golden rules, discipline, and even stricter money management policies than I use at any other time of year.
The first order of business that needs to be looked at is the head coaches that are involved. Some head coaches place more emphasis and significance on preseason than others. A past example of this would be when Marv Levy was the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. Levy placed very little if any importance on preseason games. He used the preseason solely to evaluate new player personnel, draft picks, and free agent rookies that were not drafted.
Buffalo had a very solid nucleus of core players during his regime so the job openings were hard to come by. His goals were to find the five to seven players he needed to complete his regular season roster and to get to the starting gate 100% healthy.
Contrarily Bill Parcells seemed to take the opposite approach with all the teams he coached. He tended to play his starters deeper into games than most coaches would choose to do so with the exception of the last preseason game on the schedule. Parcells was an advocate of making sure his starters were as sharp as can be heading into the regular season. My suggestion would be to isolate the NFL head coaches that have some seniority under their belts and track the results of each in past preseason games. I can assure you that you will find two to three that show some glaring tendencies that will be very beneficial in your handicapping these otherwise meaningless games.
The next priority in my evaluation process is getting the most pertinent information as it applies to player rotations. If there is one factor that I place more importance on than all the rest it's this. Nowadays the vast majority of people on the planet have computer access and the basic ability to surf the web. We have the most powerful informational tool right at our fingertips and that is the internet. Currently you can access to any major city newspaper online and more importantly in this instance the sports section of each. It is there you can find valuable information on how long a head coach intends on playing their starters, what particular facet of their game they are placing the most emphasis on, and what key players will be held out of the game for precautionary measures or injuries.
In correlation with this thinking evaluating the depth of each particular team is very important as well. For example if each coach's plan calls for their starters to play only the first half and one team has far superior depth than the other, then they will have a distinct advantage in the second half.
One very simple factor that always raises the red flag with me in the preseason is when a team is an underdog 6.0 or more points. I think you will find that if you track these particular situations for the last 10 years and beyond is that by playing on the underdogs in this role would have produced a very high percentage of winning results. The logic is quite simple. No team during the preseason should merit being a sizeable favorite. That is not to say that this logic is anywhere near 100% infallible. However, it is the best way to make money at this time of year without straining the brain in the process.
Money management is crucial at this time of the season. You don't want to dissipate your bankroll by any significant amount that you have stored away for the season. There is money to be made but the miscellaneous factors that can occur at this time of year make wagering large sums on any game a blatant misuse of your bankroll. My wagers at this time of year never exceed 25% of what my maximum wager would be during the regular season. If you don't adhere to anything else you have read in this article I implore you to give this particular rule no less than serious consideration.
It is imperative to me in the preseason to check on the daily line movements most notably the late line movement. Unlike the regular season you will find lines that may move anywhere from three to five points from where they opened by game time. Some of this movement of course is based on where the money is going, but most has to do with changing information that the books have to adjust to. It is very important to be able to decipher the difference between the two. Although I am not an advocate of trying to middle games, the NFL preseason will give those who are middle players plenty of opportunities to roll the dice.
Never wager on the last week of the preseason schedule! It is at this juncture that each organization is quite sure of their roster heading into the regular season and takes all due measures to make sure they sustain no injuries to key personnel. There is one head coach that comes to mind that is the exception to the rule. Jeff Fisher of the Tennessee Titans for whatever reason has always maintained the mindset that the last preseason game was the most important in terms of having his team firing on all cylinders heading into the regular season. However don't think you are going to be at any incredible advantage knowing this going in. The books as always are very sharp and on top of things and if you plan on wagering on Tennessee in this spot you better plan on laying a hefty number by preseason standards.
Good luck with all your wagers and remember this is a marathon and not a sprint. Like all NFL players you don't want to get hurt in the preseason because the regular season is when the serious money is on the line.
I have had considerable success when implementing my approach and methods at this time of year. My keys to being a successful NFL preseason handicapper revolve around some personal golden rules, discipline, and even stricter money management policies than I use at any other time of year.
The first order of business that needs to be looked at is the head coaches that are involved. Some head coaches place more emphasis and significance on preseason than others. A past example of this would be when Marv Levy was the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. Levy placed very little if any importance on preseason games. He used the preseason solely to evaluate new player personnel, draft picks, and free agent rookies that were not drafted.
Buffalo had a very solid nucleus of core players during his regime so the job openings were hard to come by. His goals were to find the five to seven players he needed to complete his regular season roster and to get to the starting gate 100% healthy.
Contrarily Bill Parcells seemed to take the opposite approach with all the teams he coached. He tended to play his starters deeper into games than most coaches would choose to do so with the exception of the last preseason game on the schedule. Parcells was an advocate of making sure his starters were as sharp as can be heading into the regular season. My suggestion would be to isolate the NFL head coaches that have some seniority under their belts and track the results of each in past preseason games. I can assure you that you will find two to three that show some glaring tendencies that will be very beneficial in your handicapping these otherwise meaningless games.
The next priority in my evaluation process is getting the most pertinent information as it applies to player rotations. If there is one factor that I place more importance on than all the rest it's this. Nowadays the vast majority of people on the planet have computer access and the basic ability to surf the web. We have the most powerful informational tool right at our fingertips and that is the internet. Currently you can access to any major city newspaper online and more importantly in this instance the sports section of each. It is there you can find valuable information on how long a head coach intends on playing their starters, what particular facet of their game they are placing the most emphasis on, and what key players will be held out of the game for precautionary measures or injuries.
In correlation with this thinking evaluating the depth of each particular team is very important as well. For example if each coach's plan calls for their starters to play only the first half and one team has far superior depth than the other, then they will have a distinct advantage in the second half.
One very simple factor that always raises the red flag with me in the preseason is when a team is an underdog 6.0 or more points. I think you will find that if you track these particular situations for the last 10 years and beyond is that by playing on the underdogs in this role would have produced a very high percentage of winning results. The logic is quite simple. No team during the preseason should merit being a sizeable favorite. That is not to say that this logic is anywhere near 100% infallible. However, it is the best way to make money at this time of year without straining the brain in the process.
Money management is crucial at this time of the season. You don't want to dissipate your bankroll by any significant amount that you have stored away for the season. There is money to be made but the miscellaneous factors that can occur at this time of year make wagering large sums on any game a blatant misuse of your bankroll. My wagers at this time of year never exceed 25% of what my maximum wager would be during the regular season. If you don't adhere to anything else you have read in this article I implore you to give this particular rule no less than serious consideration.
It is imperative to me in the preseason to check on the daily line movements most notably the late line movement. Unlike the regular season you will find lines that may move anywhere from three to five points from where they opened by game time. Some of this movement of course is based on where the money is going, but most has to do with changing information that the books have to adjust to. It is very important to be able to decipher the difference between the two. Although I am not an advocate of trying to middle games, the NFL preseason will give those who are middle players plenty of opportunities to roll the dice.
Never wager on the last week of the preseason schedule! It is at this juncture that each organization is quite sure of their roster heading into the regular season and takes all due measures to make sure they sustain no injuries to key personnel. There is one head coach that comes to mind that is the exception to the rule. Jeff Fisher of the Tennessee Titans for whatever reason has always maintained the mindset that the last preseason game was the most important in terms of having his team firing on all cylinders heading into the regular season. However don't think you are going to be at any incredible advantage knowing this going in. The books as always are very sharp and on top of things and if you plan on wagering on Tennessee in this spot you better plan on laying a hefty number by preseason standards.
Good luck with all your wagers and remember this is a marathon and not a sprint. Like all NFL players you don't want to get hurt in the preseason because the regular season is when the serious money is on the line.