They call me the Big Playa.... You ask why? Because I bring in the BIG Money! With football camps starting in less than a month, teams are now being fully scrutinized for the upcoming season. Football bettors are also busy prepping for the action ahead. One of the key things to look at each preseason is a team’s schedule, since scheduling plays a large part in any successes or failures. StatFox has put its computers to work running the formulas to determine which teams have the easy or difficult slates. We’ll be analyzing the results in college for the next two days, then the pros on Saturday and Sunday. In this first of the two-part college piece, we look at the schedule breakdowns in the BCS conferences.
Note: Conference Rankings are given in order of degree of difficulty. For example, Floida State's average opponent power rating for 2007 is 42.25, which is considered more difficult than Miami’s 39.50.
ACC
Hard Schedule – Florida State Easy Schedule – Virginia Tech
You have to wonder if the night Florida State lost to ACC champion Wake Forest (say that 10 times with conviction) 30-0 at Tallahassee, that venerable head coach Bobby Bowden decided enough was enough and changes had to be made in the coaching staff. Five assistants were sent packing and the same number came thru the door the other way. This will not be any easy transition year with just five home games (Alabama in Jacksonville) and a brutal November with trips to Boston College, Virginia Tech and Florida. Some oddsmakers see 16 returning starters plus both kickers and have made the Seminoles a favorite in the conference; it could easily be tough times again in Tallahassee. Virginia Tech has removed some of the bad elements out of the program and is situated to make a serious run again in the ACC with toughest games at home, save Clemson and Georgia Tech. They are +250 to win ACC and other than game at LSU figure to be 11-1 or 10-2 headed to conference title game.
ACC Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. FLORIDA ST: 42.25 -(#6 of 119)
2. DUKE: 42.23 -(#7 of 119)
3. BOSTON COLLEGE: 41.64 -(#10 of 119)
4. MIAMI: 39.5 -(#31 of 119)
5. N CAROLINA: 39 -(#34 of 119)
6. WAKE FOREST: 38.92 -(#36 of 119)
7. MARYLAND: 38.67 -(#37 of 119)
8. NC STATE: 38.5 -(#40 of 119)
9. CLEMSON: 38.25 -(#42 of 119)
10. VIRGINIA: 38 -(#45 of 119)
11. GEORGIA TECH: 37.83 -(#47 of 119)
12. VIRGINIA TECH: 37.75 -(#49 of 119)
Big 12
Hard Schedule – Nebraska Easy Schedule – Kansas
The burden of proof falls to transfer QB Sam Keller to lead Nebraska back to Big 12 title game with just 13 returning starters. Much of this will be new to the Arizona State transfer except for the Sept.15 home game against likely top ranked USC. The week before, they will travel to Wake Forest to face their diversified offense. Big 12 play shows road games at Missouri and at Texas, plus November trips to improving Kansas and Colorado. The Huskers are +350 to snag conference crown. Kansas head coach Mark Mangino is hoping a year of experience for his 16 returning lettermen will make the difference after they lost four leads in the second half. (Two in 4th quarter) Four home non-conference games against inferior opponents and not having Texas or Oklahoma on the gridiron schedule should all but guarantee the Jayhawks return to a bowl game this season.
Big 12 Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. NEBRASKA: 43.42 -(#4 of 119)
2. COLORADO: 40.83 -(#17 of 119)
3. IOWA ST: 40.33 -(#19 of 119)
4. TEXAS A&M: 40.17 -(#22 of 119)
5. OKLAHOMA ST: 39.83 -(#25 of 119)
6. BAYLOR: 39.5 -(#29 of 119)
7. TEXAS: 39 -(#35 of 119)
8. KANSAS ST: 38.25 -(#43 of 119)
9. MISSOURI: 38 -(#44 of 119)
10. OKLAHOMA: 37.25 -(#50 of 119)
11. TEXAS TECH: 36.75 -(#55 of 119)
12. KANSAS: 33.83 -(#73 of 119)
Big East
Hard Schedule – West Virginia Easy Schedule – Rutgers
It was a banner year for the Big East since its reconfiguration and they hope the good fortune continues, presumably with three Top 20 teams in preseason polls. Rutgers magical 11-2 was punctuated by destroying Kansas State in Texas Bowl. With QB Mike Teel and All Big East RB Ron Rice back, another special season could be on tap. The first five games are at Rutgers Stadium (7of 8) and they will be favored in each one. Conference contenders South Florida and West Virginia are at home with only season ending game at Louisville looking real negative. The Mountaineers will be ranked in the Top Five in almost every poll with 16 starters back, including QB Patrick White and RB Steve Slaton. Rick Rodriguez has the toughest schedule in the league; however is not that overbearing at #28 overall with this much talent. At Maryland always presents a challenge as will road trips to South Florida, Rutgers and Cincinnati. The Mountaineers are showing up +1200 (4th choice) to be BCS champions.
Big East Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. W VIRGINIA: 39.64 -(#27 of 119)
2. PITTSBURGH: 37.93 -(#46 of 119)
3. SYRACUSE: 37.23 -(#51 of 119)
4. CINCINNATI: 37.15 -(#52 of 119)
5. CONNECTICUT: 35.33 -(#62 of 119)
6. LOUISVILLE: 35.15 -(#64 of 119)
7. S FLORIDA: 34.54 -(#68 of 119)
8. RUTGERS: 33.08 -(#79 of 119)
Big Ten
Hard Schedule – Michigan State Easy Schedule – Northwestern
Another attempt at rebuilding in East Lansing as former Ohio State assistant and Cincinnati head coach Mark Dantonio takes over. Dantonio is more low key and tough minded and will need to be a big influence after the three opening home games. The road schedule may be as difficult as any in college football, highlighted with contests at Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa. Home games at Spartan Stadium will be no picnics with Michigan and Penn State wearing road uniforms in November. After a conventional off-season, second year head coach Pat Fitzgerald is positioned to be battling with Michigan State for a lower tier bowl game. The Wildcats return 15 starters, including juniors Tyrell Sutton at running back and signal caller C.J. Bacher. Northwestern should be favored in all four non-Big Ten tilts and be competitive all conference home games including Michigan. Most intriguing contest should be against the Spartans after they blew a 35-point lead at home last season losing 41-38 as 9.5-point underdogs.
Big Ten Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. MICHIGAN ST: 41.42 -(#12 of 119)
2. ILLINOIS: 39.83 -(#24 of 119)
3. PURDUE: 38.58 -(#38 of 119)
4. MICHIGAN: 37.83 -(#48 of 119)
5. IOWA: 37.08 -(#53 of 119)
6. WISCONSIN: 36.83 -(#54 of 119)
7. OHIO ST: 35.75 -(#57 of 119)
8. PENN ST: 35.75 -(#58 of 119)
9. INDIANA: 35.42 -(#61 of 119)
10. MINNESOTA: 35.25 -(#63 of 119)
11. NORTHWESTERN: 34.83 -(#65 of 119)
Pac 10
Hard Schedule – Washington Easy Schedule – California
While California may have the easiest schedule in the Pac-10, it is anything but simple ranking 22nd in the StatFox rankings. Hosting Louisiana Tech and at Colorado State should produce easy victories. A home revenge opener against Tennessee will draw immediate attention and the conference slate will have enough landmines, nonetheless if the Bears play up to expectations the +200 second choice to win the Pac-10 could be in reach being the home team against USC. Perception is a tricky thing, as third year coach Tyrone Willingham has the same record after two seasons as the coach who was fired before him Keith Gilbertson (7-16). As all signs are pointing to improvement, the schedule is brutal and considered the most imposing in the country. Starting with the second game of the season, it reads like this; Boise State, Ohio State, at UCLA, USC, at Arizona State. It closes with home games against Cal and in-state rival Washington, followed by a trip to the islands to take on a very good Hawaii team. Chances of a Huskies bowl game, Aloha.
Pac 10 Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. WASHINGTON: 46 -(#1 of 119)
2. STANFORD: 45 -(#2 of 119)
3. UCLA: 44.83 -(#3 of 119)
4. OREGON: 43.33 -(#5 of 119)
5. WASHINGTON ST: 41.67 -(#9 of 119)
6. ARIZONA: 41.25 -(#13 of 119)
7. USC: 41.17 -(#14 of 119)
8. ARIZONA ST: 40.92 -(#15 of 119)
9. OREGON ST: 40.83 -(#18 of 119)
10. CALIFORNIA: 40.25 -(#21 of 119)
SEC
Hard Schedule – Vanderbilt Easy Schedule – Arkansas
It’s a good thing Vanderbilt scheduled Richmond and Eastern Michigan this season, because the rest of games are treacherous. While few teams will have the experience the Commodores have (18 starters back), few will have to play at Auburn, at South Carolina, at Florida and at Tennessee. Home games with Alabama and Georgia, plus a non-conference closing game with Wake Forest spells trouble at Vandy. Arkansas has arguably the softest slate in the SEC and they will need it. Hard to find two better running backs than Darren McFadden and Felix Jones on one team, unfortunately a grand total of just 10 starters are back for this campaign, including four on defense. The four non-conference games would make would make Syracuse hoops headmaster Jim Boeheim plush. The Hogs will be favored in all home games, and road ventures to Bama, Tennessee and LSU are spread out. Houston Nutt’s squad is +300 (third pick) to win SEC West.
SEC Schedule Strength
Team: Avg OppRtg - (Nat'l Rank)
1. VANDERBILT: 41.45 -(#11 of 119)
2. TENNESSEE: 40.92 -(#16 of 119)
3. KENTUCKY: 40.33 -(#20 of 119)
4. OLE MISS: 39.93 -(#23 of 119)
5. S CAROLINA: 39.75 -(#26 of 119)
6. MISSISSIPPI ST: 39.54 -(#28 of 119)
7. GEORGIA: 39.5 -(#30 of 119)
8. AUBURN: 39.33 -(#32 of 119)
9. ALABAMA: 39.17 -(#33 of 119)
10. LSU: 38.54 -(#39 of 119)
11. FLORIDA: 38.33 -(#41 of 119)
12. ARKANSAS: 34.17 -(#71 of 119)