Sports betting is challenging enough to earn a profit if you do everything right; it's almost impossible if you make a handicapping or wagering error. Of course, luck sometimes is a factor with sports betting, but talented and savvy bettors can turn the percentages in their favor with careful and precise play. That means avoiding slip-ups.

With that in mind, let's look at the most common sports betting miscues, missteps and mistakes:

Handicapping Miscues

Forgetting which is the better team: It may be fashionable to analyze reams of statistical data and examine a myriad of complex psychological factors but bettors often go astray because they fail to remember that the better team still wins most of the time. Every year, the majority of NFL and NBA teams with the best pointspread records also are those teams that are among the leaders in win percentage. Sure, you can win a fair share of games by taking the points in certain situations but when favorites plays well, because they're the better team, they usually cover. Or, to paraphrase Damon Runyon, "The fight isn't always to the strong nor the race to the swift, but that's the way to bet."

Relying on technical trends: When you invest in a stock or a mutual fund you're advised that "past results are no guarantee of future success." That same caveat holds true for sports betting where an historical perceptive is interesting but hardly a harbinger of things to come. Besides, many of these so-called "trends" are nothing more than "backfitting," the fraudulent practice where a theory is developed to conform with a series of results rather than the accepted procedure where a theory is advanced and tested by results. Most successful sports betting analysts believe that each game must be evaluated on its own merits and that a reliance on technical trends is little more than an excuse for lazy handicapping.

Overreacting to the most recent performance: A good rule of thumb (or bankroll) is that a team never is as good as it looks after a victory nor as weak as it appears after a defeat. In other words, while more recent results do have more value, a single very good or a lone very bad performance should not be enough to wipe out a body of work. Thus, teams that are blown out one game often can rebound in their next game. Because good horses sometimes throw in a clinker or a mediocre horse occasionally fires on all cylinders, horse players, perhaps, understand this concept better than most sports bettors.

Thinking that offense alone will get the job done: You've heard it so often that it's become a cliché -Defense wins championships. Cliché or not, it's an accurate statement. If a team goes cold in basketball it can stay in the game if it plays staunch defense. In football, defense shortens the field, takes the ball away and creates opportunities for the offense to score easy points. In baseball, keep the ball in the park and out of the power alleys and you're always just a swing or two away from winning the game. Yet bettors often become falsely enamored with offense, with much of their sports betting being done on teams that can score. The Pistons won last year's NBA title with defense and the Patriots captured their third Super Bowl in four years because they could stop their opponents. Even the Red Sox, who had a potent offense, finally won their first World Series in 86 years because they added pitching (starter Curt Schilling and closer Keith Foulke) and better infield defense to their roster.

Placing too much emphasis on injuries: Since the value of an individual player is indirectly proportional to the number of athletes who play at one time, the fewer the players, the greater the value of each player. Thus, the absence of a starter in basketball, where just five play at one time, is far more significant than when a football team, which has at least 22 starters, loses a player to injury. Of course, bookmakers are quick to adjust lines after an injury so the bettor rarely gains an advantage. In fact, because teams often compensate for the loss of a key player with more determination and effort, the gambler may be at a disadvantage if he places too much weight on the absence. What's more, the replacement player sometimes turns out to be just as good as the starter. Remember that Thurman Thomas' backup at Oklahoma State was Barry Sanders.

Making too much of psychology: Just because a team is highly motivated doesn't necessarily mean it will win. Effort counts, certainly, but it can't always overcome talent. And there's nothing that says that the football team that won 50-0 last year isn't just as eager to duplicate that result as the team that was humiliated on the other end of that score is to reverse that outcome. Being too psyched up for an opponent can translate to overly aggressive play. In football, that can result in penalties, such as encroachment or offsides. In basketball, being too emotionally high can lead to fouls. In baseball, a player who fails to control his emotions may chase pitches in the batter's box.

While it's crucial to identify the right side in sports betting, in order to maximize chances for success, it's also imperative that the bettor has knowledge of wagering techniques and principles. A professional gambler put it another way: "If you're a great handicapper and an average bettor, you probably can't win. But if you're an average handicapper and a great bettor, you've probably got enough of an edge to win. The problem is, most people don't know how to wager."

Sports Betting Missteps

Betting more than you can afford to lose: Even bookmakers don't want you to go broke. In fact, savvy bet takers understand that it's crucial for gamblers to win a fair share of their bets so that they're able to keep playing. A player without money is of no value to the house. The best way to preserve a sports betting bankroll is through the implementation of some well-disciplined strategy. One respected plan, called the "Kelly Criterion" after its author, John L. Kelly, advocates betting a fixed fraction of your bankroll on every play. Let's say you have a bankroll of $4,400 and you decide to wager 5% of it on each play. Your first bet would be $220. If you win, you wager 5% of your new bankroll of $4,600, or $230. If you lose, you do the same, wager 5% of $4,180, or $209. A virtue of the Kelly Criterion is that since you're betting just a portion of your bankroll, you never can go broke!

Trying to "get even": Get even for what, a day? A week? A month? A year? Your life? Money wagered and lost no longer belongs to the bettor so it's far more important to wisely invest the cash you have remaining than to chase the money that's already been lost. Each bet stands or falls on its own merits and no one wager ever should be viewed as a way to overcome past errors. Among other assets, bettors require discipline and maturity to be successful. It's inevitable that you're going to have some losing days. Deal with it. Don't chase!

Betting too much on one game: For the most part, professional gamblers bet about the same on every play. The reasoning is that a game either is good enough to play or it isn't. Sophisticated gamblers understand that there really is no such thing as a "lock" or a "best bet." A blown call of an official or a fluke occurrence can decide the outcome of an event. Dayjur was a "lock" to win the 1990 Breeders' Cup Sprint when he jumped over a shadow approaching the finish line and was beaten a neck by Safely Kept. Casual bettors often compound the mistake of wagering too much on one game with trying to get even, the first of our sports betting missteps. Doubling or tripling up on the final game of the day in an effort to recoup the day's losses is a recipe for financial ruin. Bet more when you're ahead, not when you're behind.

Investing in a game just because it's on television: A pizza, a six-pack and a wager on the Monday night football game right? We get it! Look, we're not saying you have to replace the pizza with quiche, toss the brew in favor of diet soda or even forgo a bet but it might be a good idea to wager a quarter of what you usually invest on a game. Make a recreational bet if you must but save your serious wagering for those games you like for a reason other than their availability on TV.

Betting too few games: That's right, too few games. Conventional wisdom might advocate that you limit your action and carefully pick your spots but professional gamblers see it differently. "The fewer games you bet, the more your outcome is subject to luck," explained one sophisticated player who demanded anonymity. "You have to bet enough games so that a bad call, a crazy bounce or a freak play doesn't crush you. Anyone can lose one game, or two out of three games, but if you're a really good player, you know you're going to come out on top if your sample is large enough. The only way that happens is if you play enough games."

Going with the flow: There is no evidence that a pointspread move signals which team is going to win the game. Sure, sometimes a football line moves from -3 1/2 to -6 and the favorite covers easily. "Smart money," claim the neophytes. But just as often the team getting the money does not cover the money. Truth is, "smart money" is smart only about half the time in sports betting. Don't be influenced by line movements.

NFL Football Betting Preview
Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
Sunday, 4:15 pm Eastern – FOX

Opening Line: Cowboys -10 , Total 47

The Dallas Cowboys will try and bounce back from their first loss of the season as they host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.  The Cowboys lost 48-27 to New England in the most hyped of game of the season last week but they still feel they will be playing in the Super Bowl. "If they make it to Arizona, we will see them again," receiver Patrick Crayton said of the Patriots. "Seriously, I'm not backing down from that statement." 

Dallas has an excellent run defense but a poor pass defense.  That combination may be just fine against Minnesota since the Vikings have the leading rusher in the NFL in Adrian Peterson who had a team-record 224 yards on 20 attempts and three TD’s last week in the win over Chicago.  If the Cowboys stop Peterson the Vikings have not proven that quarterback Tarvaris Jackson can pick up the slack.  He was just 9 of 23 passes for 136 yards last week. "You just want to be able to make plays, too," Jackson said. "You don't want to be that guy that holds the team back."

Minnesota has won five straight against Dallas although the teams have not met in three years.

Current Line: Cowboys -9.5 , Total 46.5

Here are the betting stats for Sunday’s game.  The Vikings are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. the NFC. The Vikings are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Vikings are 0-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the two teams.

The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NFC. The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the two teams and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

The Under is 12-5 in the Vikings last 17 games on grass. The Under is 15-7 in the Vikings last 22 road games.

The Over is 4-0 in the Cowboys last 4 games in October. The Over is 10-2-2 in the Cowboys last 14 games on grass. The Over is 5-1 in the Cowboys last 6 games overall. The Over is 4-1 in the Cowboys last 5 games as a favorite. The Over is 9-4-2 in the Cowboys last 15 vs. the NFC.

NFL Betting
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1) at Denver Broncos (2-3)
Sunday, 8:15 pm Eastern – NBC

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5 , Total 39

The Denver Broncos will try and keep their season from coming apart as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NBC Sunday night game. The Broncos are 2-3 and a loss would send them to 2-4 and put them in serious trouble.  The Broncos had a bye last week and it may have been a good thing as they were coming off their worst home loss in 40 years as San Diego crushed them 41-3.

"One thing you can't do is dwell on it," Denver cornerback Champ Bailey said. "You learn from it and you keep moving on. You worry about that loss and the next team will get you."  Denver has the worst rushing defense in the league, although they have the best defense against the pass but that number is skewed since teams are running at will. "I know to people it looks like, 'Oh, this team is awful,'" safety John Lynch said. "But that's not the case. We've got to show it."  It is not a good matchup for the Broncos as the Steelers have the second-ranked rushing offense in the league, averaging 167 yards per game.  Playing defense and running the ball usually results in winning games and that is exactly what Pittsburgh is doing.  "They're pretty good," Denver coach Mike Shanahan said. "Any time you give up 9.4 points per game and 235 yards and have a point differential (that) is tied with New England, you’re pretty good, so I think they’re playing extremely well."

Pittsburgh is 5-1 but has not gotten much attention since New England and Indianapolis are still unbeaten.  Pittsburgh expects to get injured players Hines Ward, Troy Polamalu and Santonio Holmes back this week from injuries.

Current Line: Steelers -3.5 , Total 39

Denver is 15-10 all-time against Pittsburgh and has won three straight at home versus the Steelers.

Here are the betting stats for Sunday’s game.  The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. The Steelers are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games in October. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between the two teams.

The Broncos are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Broncos are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

The Over is 8-0 in the Broncos last 8 home games. The Over is 4-1 in the Broncos last 5 games as an underdog. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams.

College Football Betting Preview
Louisville (3-1) at Connecticut (5-1)
Friday, 8:00 pm Eastern – ESPN

Opening Line: Louisville  -3.5 , Total 61

An interesting matchup in the Big East takes place on Friday night as the high powered offense of the Louisville Cardinals takes on the tough defense of Connecticut.  It was expected that Louisville would be leading the Big East but they come in at 1-1 in the conference while Connecticut is 1-0.

Connecticut has given up just 12 points per game and is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense, holding opponents to an average of 264 yards. "I don't think there is any question that to date this is the best defense that we will have played," said Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe.  This will also be the best offense that Connecticut has seen. Louisville has put up almost 560 yards per game, including 398 yards per game through the air.  The Huskies lost their first game of the season last week to Virginia while Louisville upset Cincinnati.  Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns.  Receiver Harry Douglas had 7 catches for 118 yards.  The key for the Huskies will be to keep pressure on Brohm. "As long as he doesn't have time, he can't be as good as he is," Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler said. "We've got to get him rattled. We've got to get some hits on him and knock him off his game a little bit."

Louisville is 3-0 against the Huskies all-time.  Last season Louisville routed Connecticut 48-17.  It is a different Huskies team this season and one that wants a big win on Friday night. "It wouldn't really say this is a defining game, it's just another challenge, a bigger challenge," UConn defensive tackle Dan Davis said.  Connecticut still has to play South Florida, Cincinnati and West Virginia this season.  Friday’s game will go a long way toward determining which team will stay in the race for the Big East title and which team takes a step back. "To drop three games makes you question yourself and what might you have done better, or might have done wrong," said Louisville wide receiver Pat Carter. "This conference is still open and we can still win it."  Louisville still has games remaining against West Virginia, Rutgers, South Florida and Pittsburgh.

Current Line: Louisville  -3 , Total 60

UConn will be playing its ninth game under the lights at Rentschler Field with the Huskies posting a 5-3 record. The Louisville game marks the fourth year in a row that Connecticut has played in an ESPN or ESPN 2 Friday night game. The Huskies are 1-2 previously in these contests, defeating Syracuse in 2005 but losing to Boston College in 2004 and West Virginia in 2006. UConn is 2-1 in its Big East home openers since joining the league. This is Homecoming weekend at UConn. The Huskies are 2-2 in their previous Homecoming games at Rentschler Field.

Here are the betting stats for Friday’s game.  The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

The Huskies are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The Huskies are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. The Huskies are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.

The Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Over is 6-2 in the Cardinals last 8 Friday games. The Over is 14-5 in the Cardinals last 19 games in October. The Over is 5-2 in the Cardinals last 7 games on grass. The Over is 5-2 in the Cardinals last 7 conference games.

The Under is 4-0 in the Huskies last 4 games in October. The Under is 15-7 in the Huskies last 22 games on grass.

NFL Betting Preview
Dallas Cowboys (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1)
Sunday, 8:15 pm Eastern – NBC

Opening Line: Bears -3 , Total 43

Two of the best teams in the NFC meet on Sunday night as the Chicago Bears host the Dallas Cowboys.  It will be a matchup of great offense versus great defense.  Tony Romo is leading a powerful Dallas offense while Brian Urlacher leads a great Bears defense. 
 

The Cowboys lead the league with 82 points, their highest total after two games since 1971. "You can't crown us champions right now," safety Ken Hamlin said. "It's only the second week of the season." Quarterback Tony Romo leads the NFC with a 119.3 quarterback rating, throwing for 531 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. Terrell Owens has eight catches for 184 yards and three scores this season. Marion Barber has 154 yards and three TDs on 25 carries.

The Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league and the fifth-fewest yards.  They defeated Kansas City 20-10 last week.  They have held 12 of their last 15 opponents at home to 10 points or less. The Bears held the Chiefs' Larry Johnson to 55 yards on 16 attempts.  The problem for Chicago is the offense which has the third-fewest yards in the league and has scored the fourth-fewest points.  Embattled quarterback Rex Grossman was 20-of-34 for 160 yards and a touchdown but was intercepted twice.  The Bears have turned the ball over 7 times this season, tied with Detroit for most in the league.  Chicago does have Devin Hester though and he had a 73-yard punt return for a touchdown last week although Dallas has said they will not kick to him on Sunday night.

Current Line: Bears -3 (-115) , Total 41

Chicago has won the last three matchups at Soldier Field between the two teams. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Cowboys are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The

Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between the two teams.

The Over is 8-2-2 in the Cowboys last 12 road games. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Cowboys last 9 games overall. The Over is 8-3-2 in the Cowboys last 13 vs. the NFC. The Over is 11-5-1 in the Cowboys last 17 games as a road underdog.

The Over is 14-2-1 in the Bears last 17 vs. the NFC. The Over is 10-2 in the Bears last 12 games as a home favorite. The Over is 12-3-1 in the Bears last 16 games as a favorite. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the two teams.

NFL Betting Preview
San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-0)
Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern – CBS

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5 , Total 43

Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers are 2-0 on the season while NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson and the San Diego Chargers are 1-1.  The Packers are coming off their highest-scoring game in nearly two years, a 35-13 rout of the New York Giants.  The Chargers are coming off a bad loss at New England where they were blown out 38-14. San Diego was the NFL's highest-scoring team last season, averaging 30.8 points per game but has done little with new head coach Norv Turner.

San Diego is 24th in the league with just 28 points. "I'm concerned because there is a standard here and we expect to be more productive and we expect to move the ball,” Turner said, "We need to be more productive and we're not going to be more productive if we turn the football over.” Philip Rivers had two interceptions and lost a fumble Sunday.  Tomlinson has averaged 1.9 yards per carry with only 68 yards on 35 carries. "I don't know that anything that you say is going to reassure anybody,” Turner said, "What we have to do is go perform. We have to go play the way we're capable of playing.”

Current Line: Chargers -5.5 , Total 43

The Packers are off to their best start since opening 3-0 in 2001. "The offseason program, through training camp, and really now with the two wins, I just see the confidence building,” coach Mike McCarthy said, "I think it's real confidence. It's not manufactured, and I think that's important. Our guys believe. They know they can improve. They believe in the work week and what it takes to get ready for a football game. It's growing, a lot of energy in the building.”

Favre is a perfect 4-0 against San Diego in his career.  He has thrown for 828 yards, 10 TDs and four interceptions in those games.  The last time the teams played was in 2003 as Favre threw for 278 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Green Bay has won seven of eight all-time meetings against San Diego.

The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Packers are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. The Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

The Over is 6-1 in the Chargers last 7 road games. The Under is 4-1 in the Chargers last 5 games as a favorite. The Under is 4-1 in the Packers last 5 home games. The Under is 4-1 in the Packers last 5 games as a home underdog. The Under is 4-1 in the Packers last 5 games overall.

College Football Betting Preview
 #1 USC at #14 Nebraska
Saturday, 8:00 pm Eastern – ABC

Opening Line: USC -9.5, Total 50

The #1 ranked USC Trojans head to Nebraska on Saturday to face the 14^th ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers.  A #1 team has not played at Nebraska since Oklahoma visited in 1978. "Everybody's saying this is the biggest weekend in Lincoln ever, and that Hollywood's coming to town," Nebraska safety Ben Eisenhart said. 
 

The Trojans are now the team in college football that Nebraska used to be.  USC won the national championship in 2004 after splitting it with LSU in 2003 and is the favorite again this season.  Nebraska is the last team to win the National Championship outright in two straight years, in 1994 and 1995.

A win against USC would thrust Nebraska back into national contention and back onto the national stage. "I think the game against SC is pretty well established, pretty well talked about in our part of the country," head coach Bill Callahan said. "We're going to have to have our best effort on Saturday night."

USC had a bye last week after opening up the season with an unimpressive 38-10 win over Idaho. "There's a lot of areas we can do better on," USC head coach Pete Carroll said. "I didn't think that we took advantage of our really nice opportunities. We had some shots at guys and didn't hit them. ... I'm pleased to get this first game behind us."

Current Line: USC -9.5, Total 51

The key for Nebraska on Saturday will be how well quarterback Sam Keller and the offense do against the USC defense. Keller transferred from Arizona State last year and has played twice against the Trojans but played poorly both times.  This season Keller has completed 38 of 66 passes for 451 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in wins against Nevada and Wake Forest.  On the other side of the field is Heisman Trophy candidate John David Booty who threw for three touchdowns in three quarters against Idaho going 21-of-32 for 206 yards with an interception.  Last season Booty was 25-of-36 for 257 yards and three touchdowns in USC's 28-10 home win over the Cornhuskers. The Trojans lead the all-time series 2-0-1, and won 31-21 in their only visit to Lincoln in 1969.

Here are the betting statistics for Saturday’s game.  The Trojans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

The Cornhuskers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Cornhuskers are 18-2-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Under is 5-1 in the Trojans last 6 games as a favorite. The Over is 8-3 in the Trojans last 11 non-conference games. The Under is 5-2 in the Trojans last 7 games overall. The Under is 4-0 in the Cornhuskers last 4 games as an underdog. The Over is 10-1 in the Cornhuskers last 11 home games. The Under is 15-6 in the Cornhuskers last 21 non-conference games.

College Football Betting Preview
 #16 Arkansas at Alabama
Saturday, 6:45 pm Eastern – ESPN

Opening Line: Alabama -3, Total 47.5

A key SEC battle takes place Saturday night in Tuscaloosa as the Alabama Crimson Tide host the 16^th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks.  This will be the first SEC home game for Nick Saban as coach of the Crimson Tide and if last year’s overtime game is any indication, it should be a good one.

Last season the Razorbacks and Tide went to overtime before Arkansas won 24-23.  Heisman Trophy candidate Darren McFadden and Felix Jones combined for 177 yards rushing in last year’s game.  This season Arkansas comes into the game at 1-0 after beating Troy two weeks ago.  Arkansas had 350 yards and three TD’s on the ground in that game.  It will be much tougher on Saturday against an Alabama defense that has given up only 133 total rushing yards in two games and no rushing TD’s.

Current Line: Alabama -3.5, Total 47

Alabama won their SEC opening game last week on the road at Vanderbilt.

Redshirt freshman running back Terry Grant ran 24 times for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Alabama leads the all-time series 9-8, but Arkansas has won three of the last four meetings.  Razorbacks head coach Houston Nutt is 5-4 all-time against Alabama.  Nick Saban is 3-2 all-time against Arkansas but all of those games were when he was at LSU.

Here are the betting statistics for Saturday’s game.  The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Razorbacks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September. The Razorbacks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings between the two teams and the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. The Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Crimson Tide are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. The Crimson Tide are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite.

The Under is 4-1 in the Razorbacks last 5 games as a road underdog. The Over is 4-1 in the Crimson Tide’s last 5 games as a home favorite. The

Under is 14-4 in the Crimson Tide’s last 18 vs. a team with a winning record. The Over is 5-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last 7 home games. The Under is 24-10 in Alabama’s last 34 games as a favorite.

Spread betting was invented by Charles K. McNeil, a math teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the 1940s. The bettor bets that the difference in the scores of two teams will be less than or greater than a value specified by the bookmaker.

For example, if a bettor places a bet on an underdog in an American football game when the spread is 3.5 points, he is said to take the points; he will win his bet if the underdog's score plus 3.5 points is greater than the favourite's score. If he had taken the favourite, he would have been giving the points and would win if the favourite's score minus 3.5 points was greater than the underdog's score.

As you all know, when you place a straight wager on the point spread for football or basketball, you need to risk $110 to win $100. The $10 difference between risk and payout is known as the juice, or the vigorish, or “vig” and is the reason sportsbooks are in business. Sportsbooks essentially act as a broker between you and another player who wants to bet on the other team and collects the small commission as compensation for brokering the deal and handling the transfer of funds between the two of you. This is important to understand, because it leads me to the biggest misconception in sports wagering. The pointspread is not the handicapper’s predicted margin-of-victory, but it is in fact the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. Understanding that little tid-bit is the first step towards taking advantage of the numbers.

"Linemakers," says former Rob Gilespie, "are divided into two groups, oddsmakers and bookmakers".

Oddsmakers deal in a theoretical world because they don't actually take bets on the lines that they publish. Oddsmakers make their money by selling their lines to media outlets, sportsbooks, etc. These are the lines you see in your local newspaper or hear on the radio. The line from Las Vegas Sports Consultants is a good example of one of these. The LVSC line is the one distributed to Las Vegas Sportsbooks. The lines don't change very much from day to day, because there are no direct wagers placed on these lines, and as such, there are no line moves required to try and balance action.

On the other hand, bookmakers deal very much in the real world, as they take bets on the lines they publish. These lines then move as a result of wagering, because the books seek to balance action in an effort to minimize risk and maximize the vig collected. This fundamental difference is one of the main reasons that the lines you see in your newspaper are not the same lines you get when you deal with a sportsbook. It is worth mentioning that time is also a factor. The lines in your paper were probably accurate when they were submitted to the editor, but in the amount of time that passes from pre-production to when you read the paper, injuries, weather and other factors can dramatically shift the spread.

Linemakers use a variety of methods to calculate their idea of the pointspread. Some use complicated computer programs that factor in recent performance, injuries, player match-ups, etc. Others simply have a feel for the games and produce a number out of thin air. However, most line makers use power ratings or some derivation.

Power ratings involve assigning each team a numerical value based on performance and than comparing the ratings to generate a pointspread. For example, one set of ratings I saw this week had Miami rated 57 at home and Indianapolis rated 53 on the road, so the difference results in a 4 point line. Another set has Miami rated 77, Indianapolis rated 75, and gave a 3.5 point advantage to the home team so it predicted an opening line of 5. The actual line opened at 6 at some books, and was bet down quickly to 4.5, so it appears that 6 was too high. There are no standards for how to derive these ratings, and predicting actual outcomes with better accuracy than the majority of the betting public is your key to success.

Some sportsbooks base all their lines on their own internal linemaking, but the majority of books rely either solely on oddsmaking services or a combination of external service and their own handicapping. BoDog Bookmakers handicap the games themselves, compare these results to the opening lines out of Vegas and then adjusts for the historical action of their own player base before coming up with a consensus opening number for each game. From there, the numbers are moved only to balance action or to account for special circumstances such as weather, injuries or the like.

The key advantage bettors have is that they do not have to wager on every game, but can pick and choose wagering opportunities. The bookmaker however, puts up a number on hundreds of events each and every week. In a typical NFL week, there are 14 to 15 games for you to choose from and there are even multiple betting opportunities on each game. You may not have a good feel for every game, but you most likely see several games where you are confident that one team will cover with better than 53% probability. This is what handicappers refer to as an "overlay" or "getting value", which is the starting point of every handicap.

MLB Betting Preview
Toronto Blue Jays (70-66) at Boston Red Sox (82-55)
Monday, 7:05 pm Eastern

Opening Line: Red Sox -210, Total 9.5 Under (-120)

Daisuke Matsuzaka will try and avoid losing four in a row tonight as the Red Sox host the Blue Jays.  The right-hander has struggled of late, allowing 13 runs in 18 and 1/3 innings while losing three straight.  Dice K does not have a win since August 4^th.  The Red Sox still have a six game lead on New York in the American League East. 
 

Matsuzaka is 13-11 with a 3.88 ERA this season. He is 1-2 with a 6.88 ERA in his last three home starts.  He did win against Toronto 9-4 on July 14^th and is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts against the Blue Jays. The Red Sox have won seven of 12 games over the Blue Jays this year, but surprisingly are only 2-4 at Fenway against them.

Toronto is coming off a three-game sweep over Seattle.  They have won seven of their last 10. "Everything is kind of clicking right now," pitcher A.J. Burnett said. "We're hitting, we're playing D and the pitching staff is doing a good job." Jesse Litsch (5-6, 3.40) gets the start tonight for Toronto.  Litsch gave up two runs and four hits in six innings of a 5-4 win over Oakland on Tuesday, but did not get a decision. In his only start against the Red Sox this season he gave up one run and nine hits in 6 2-3 innings to earn a 2-1 win at Fenway.

Here are the betting statistics for this game.  The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Litsch's last 5 road starts. The Blue Jays are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.

The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 home games. The Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the American League East. The Red Sox are 7-3 in Matsuzaka's last 10 home starts. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Matsuzaka's last 6 starts as a favorite. The Red Sox are 0-5 in Matsuzaka's last 5 starts vs. the American League East.

The Under is 10-2 in the Blue Jays last 12 games as a road underdog. The Under is 16-5-1 in the Blue Jays last 22 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Blue Jays last 27 road games. The Under is 24-9 in the Blue Jays last 33 vs. the American League East. The Under is 4-0 in Litsch's last 4 starts vs. the American League East. The Under is 7-1 in Litsch's last 8 road starts.

The Under is 6-1 in the Red Sox last 7 vs. the American League East. The Under is 5-1 in the Red Sox last 6 overall. The Over is 5-1 in the Red Sox last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 12-4 in Matsuzaka's last 16 starts overall. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston between the two teams.