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Why betting late means betting smart...
The lines get posted a week early, newspapers and TV shows make picks by Wednesday or Thursday, and even many so called experts post picks as early as Tuesday. We just ask...why? The amount of information that isn't even available until Thursday is not only abundant but more accurate, and more important than anything teams knew on Tuesday. And all of that information becomes even more clear on Friday and the details are even more clear by Saturday night or even Sunday morning. Of course, college football news on Sunday doesn't help much - but you know what we mean. Proper utilization of available information - accurate information - is the key to successful handicapping.

At LatePlays.com we don't even start thinking about our picks until Thursday night, and even that is just preliminary. Details about players health, coaches game plans, for both teams of course, weather, players moving up and down the depth chart, etc...etc...etc... all are important factors overlooked by too many bettors. We factor them all in using the latest and greatest information from inside sources.

Let's take a closer look at a few of the factors. Injuries. Obvious, right? Sure we all know minute-by-minute the status of the star QB or star RB, we can't turn the news on without hearing about it in fact. But when those guys are hurt there's no line on the game yet anyway. The big studs health are certainly very key elements, but not the only ones. Don't automatically assume a team is done because they lose their star RB. Who's the back up, what's the new (and old) game plan, who's the new back up (previous # 3)? And perhaps, how will the opposition react and how long is he out? A star player out for one game will often times create an outstanding effort from a team to make up for one lost week. At the same time the opposition could lose some intensity. But, that surge of emotion may only be good for 1 or 2 weeks. If they lose a player for the year - the attitude can be completely different, a defeatist attitude can set in quickly. So all that is important but now the biggest factor when talking about injuries. The most important injury information is the injury information that most of us never hear about. Would you even think twice is a back center was out for a game? Probably not. But what if the starting center were also a bit banged up already, and what if the back up was being groomed to take over and getting 35% of the snaps anyway, and what if that team relied heavily on a run game led by a pulling center to lead block? Now you'd want to know about the back up center being out....that's what separates winners from losers when it comes to betting. We could paint the same scenario for back ups anywhere on the field. Depth is an absolute key to any NFL teams success.

Let's look at weather. Sure everyone knows a driving rain storm, or winter storm can have a crazy affect on a football game. But can handicappers really also predict the weather so accurately that by mid-week they know the weather for a specific 3-4 hour window on Sunday? Wow! I'm impressed. We can't do that. It's tough enough 60 minutes before kick-off to be entirely confident in the weather for the next 4 hours. And when it comes to weather you have to look at the teams most equipped to handle it. If they must change a game plan can they still be successful? Are the balanced enough, and deep enough? And we look at much, much more than just heavy snow or heavy rain. What about wind? Probably the biggest deterrent to a passing game is a stiff wind. Is it a cross wind or a north/south wind? Is it constant, is it gusting, will it last for 4 quarters?

Okay, so how many words was that on just two of the factors we consider? So if you're going to take all that time to take all that into account - and if you're betting your hard earned money, you should be - why wouldn't you use the latest, most up-to-date, most accurate information available? All depends on how badly you actually want to win.